While many Americans are concerned about the humanitarian crisis in Venezuela and many want to see Maduro step down, few would support forcibly overthrowing a foreign regime. Indeed, the idea that America should seek regime change in other countries is often met with outrage and dismay.
But the desire to forcibly oust adversarial leaders is not always in our national interest. It is important to understand what happens when foreign governments are thrown out of power, how they are replaced, and the consequences that follow.
The most widely discussed consequence of regime change is the risk that covert action will spark a violent insurgency, threatening American interests and the broader stability of a region. This point is not disputed; it has been documented extensively by academics and others, including Robert O’Rourke, who found that covert attempts at regime change failed in their basic objectives about sixty percent of the time, and most often produced blowback that was far worse than the original objective of the policy.
However, there is a more subtle cost that is less widely appreciated. When foreign regimes are thrown out of power, they can be replaced by leaders who are ruthless, totalitarian, unpredictable, and arbitrary both domestically and internationally. These leaders are characterized by a lack of democratic control and accountability, and they often have deep anti-American roots.
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